"Backslanted X" fertility dynamics and macroeconomics

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


A large number of pairs of countries exhibit a dynamic pattern in which: (1) Fertility in both countries declines across time; (2) initially, one country has a higher fertility and a lower per-capita income than the other; and (3) in time, as per-capita incomes converge, fertility rates in the poorer country become lower than in the richer one. This article documents the prevalence of such dynamics and offers a theoretical model in which these dynamics emerge endogenously. Assuming differences in the degree of utility substitution between consumption and rearing children across countries generates all three components of these dynamics.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)159-172
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Population Economics
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2008
Externally publishedYes


  • Economic growth
  • Fertility
  • Human capital


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