TY - JOUR
T1 - Factors governing the interannual variation and the long-term trend of the 850 hpa temperature over israel
AU - Saaroni, H.
AU - Ziv, B.
AU - Osetinsky, I.
AU - Alpert, P.
PY - 2010/1
Y1 - 2010/1
N2 - This study examines the ability of the interannual variability in the occurrence of synoptictypes, intensity of large-scale circulation sand global temperature to explain that of the 850hPa temperature in Israel for the summer and the winter.The synoptic factor was represented by 19 types defined by Alpert et al. (2004b). For the summer the deep and the weak Persian Trough explained 35% of the interannual temperature variance. For the winter, the lows to the east and to the north explained 44% of the interannual temperature variance. Two additional factors were incorporated: large-scalecirculations, the North Atlantic Oscillation for the summer and the Arctic Oscillation for the winter; and global radiative forcing, represented by the global temperature. Both of them were found to be significant, and the variance explained by all of them is 56% for the summer and 64% for the winter. In the summer the variation is dominated by warm and cool types whereas in the winter the cold systems dominate The individual contribution of each factor to the long-term temperature trend was estimated. While the global radiative forcing contribution was positive and large in both seasons, the synoptic contribution was positive, four times larger in the summer. The large-scale contribution was negative, three times larger in the winter. The considerable warmingin the summer results from a rapidincrease in the occurrence of the weak Persian Trough, which is a warm type. The study approach may be useful for predicting future temperature regimes, based on predicted synoptic features in climatic models.
AB - This study examines the ability of the interannual variability in the occurrence of synoptictypes, intensity of large-scale circulation sand global temperature to explain that of the 850hPa temperature in Israel for the summer and the winter.The synoptic factor was represented by 19 types defined by Alpert et al. (2004b). For the summer the deep and the weak Persian Trough explained 35% of the interannual temperature variance. For the winter, the lows to the east and to the north explained 44% of the interannual temperature variance. Two additional factors were incorporated: large-scalecirculations, the North Atlantic Oscillation for the summer and the Arctic Oscillation for the winter; and global radiative forcing, represented by the global temperature. Both of them were found to be significant, and the variance explained by all of them is 56% for the summer and 64% for the winter. In the summer the variation is dominated by warm and cool types whereas in the winter the cold systems dominate The individual contribution of each factor to the long-term temperature trend was estimated. While the global radiative forcing contribution was positive and large in both seasons, the synoptic contribution was positive, four times larger in the summer. The large-scale contribution was negative, three times larger in the winter. The considerable warmingin the summer results from a rapidincrease in the occurrence of the weak Persian Trough, which is a warm type. The study approach may be useful for predicting future temperature regimes, based on predicted synoptic features in climatic models.
KW - Cyprus low
KW - Eastern mediterranean
KW - Persian trough
KW - Red sea trough
KW - Subtropical high
KW - Synoptic classification
KW - Temperature interannual variability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77949373069&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/qj.580
DO - 10.1002/qj.580
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AN - SCOPUS:77949373069
SN - 0035-9009
VL - 136
SP - 305
EP - 318
JO - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
JF - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
IS - 647
ER -